BITCOINREVERSAL RESEARCH / RETURNS & CYCLE RESEARCH
Bitcoin Halving Cycle Comparison
See the current cycle alongside 2012, 2016 and 2020. Explore returns and drawdowns at the same elapsed day—with exact values for every curve.
Bitcoin halving cycle comparison live chart
Halving-day close = 100 · compare equivalent elapsed days
Drag to pan · pinch or + / − to zoom · tap for exact values. Keyboard: ← / → selects a day.
Each curve begins at its own UTC halving-day close. The common view compares 927 elapsed days. Values beyond the ongoing epoch are unavailable.
Charting by TradingView Lightweight Charts™ · Method & sources
THE CURRENT CYCLE IN CONTEXT
How does Bitcoin compare with earlier halving cycles?
Through 2026-11-03 UTC, the current epoch has 927 completed elapsed days since the April 20, 2024 halving-day close. Its return from that close is +19.4% . The table compares earlier epochs at the same elapsed day.
Each line starts at an index of 100. An index of 200 means the daily close is twice the halving-day close; 50 means it is half. The chart aligns elapsed time, not dollar prices, and does not forecast the current cycle’s future path.
FROM ONE CHART TO A BROADER FRAMEWORK
Put the cycle in context.
Explore how BitcoinReversal combines defined market conditions into long-term buy-side, sell-side and transitional research signals.
MATCHED OBSERVATION WINDOWS
Bitcoin returns after each halving: day 927
The selected day is measured from each epoch’s own UTC halving-day close. Peak return and maximum drawdown below use observations from day zero through the selected day. A later day is left unavailable if an epoch ended or the current epoch has not reached it.
| Epoch | Actual UTC date | BTC close | Index | Return | Peak return to day | Max epoch drawdown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20122012-11-28 · completed epoch | 2015-06-13 | $232.40 | 1,877.22 | +1,777.2% | +9,198.6% | -84.5% |
| 20162016-07-09 · completed epoch | 2019-01-22 | $3,604.58 | 553.73 | +453.7% | +2,895.2% | -83.4% |
| 20202020-05-11 · completed epoch | 2022-11-24 | $16,604.47 | 193.03 | +93.0% | +685.5% | -76.6% |
| 20242024-04-20 · ongoing epoch | 2026-11-03 | $77,572.17 | 119.35 | +19.4% | +91.9% | -53.1% |
Completed-epoch labels describe the epoch’s status; the table still measures only the selected elapsed-day window. Historical price provenance and revisions are described below.
READ THE TWO PANELS TOGETHER
Return and drawdown answer different questions
Normalized price
The upper panel divides each daily close by that epoch’s halving-day close. This makes relative price paths comparable even when their dollar prices are far apart.
Epoch drawdown
The lower panel measures the fall from the highest daily close reached so far within that epoch. A value of −40% means a 40% decline from that running peak. It is not necessarily drawdown from Bitcoin’s all-time high.
Same elapsed days
The default view truncates all curves to the shortest available epoch. Full epochs reveals the longer histories, but those endpoints have different durations. Use the same-day table for matched comparisons.
Why identical starting points do not imply identical cycles
Halving epochs occur in different market environments. Adoption, liquidity, interest rates, market structure, derivatives and investor demand change. Indexing the lines makes a historical comparison readable; it does not isolate the halving’s causal effect or establish a recurring price schedule.
Why the current epoch has no final peak label
The highest observed close so far may be exceeded later. The page treats the current epoch as ongoing, reports only available completed daily observations and does not designate a final cycle top in advance.
FORMULA, DATES & REPRODUCIBILITY
How this Bitcoin halving cycle chart is calculated
Elapsed day = (observation UTC date − halving UTC date) / 1 day Halving-day index = 100 × daily close / halving-day close Return (%) = index − 100 Running peak = highest daily close from epoch day 0 through the observation Epoch drawdown (%) = 100 × (daily close / running peak − 1) Maximum drawdown = lowest epoch drawdown through the selected day
UTC epoch boundaries
Day zero is November 28, 2012; July 9, 2016; May 11, 2020; or April 20, 2024. Each completed epoch stops before the next halving’s UTC date. The baseline is the stored close for the halving date, not the price at the exact block timestamp.
One stored price series
All epochs use the same BitcoinReversal completed daily price series. Positive finite closes are sorted by UTC date. Missing observations are not invented or filled forward. A missing halving-day baseline makes that epoch unavailable.
Current-day exclusion
The incomplete UTC day does not enter the curves or table. The latest included date is 2026-11-03 . Intraday BTC price is separately timestamped in the price bar and does not rewrite a completed-day comparison.
Price provenance, close conventions and corrections
January 4, 2011–March 13, 2026 is an inherited historical import whose original vendor and daily cutoff are not recorded. From March 14, 2026, BitcoinReversal stores the last available CoinGecko tick in each UTC day. These closes can differ from official exchange candles, and historical source corrections can change derived results. The page provides the actual input dates and values rather than claiming independent vendor verification.
Reconstruct the normalized curves from the downloads
Download the daily CSV or snapshot JSON. Group observations by the four UTC halving boundaries; divide each close by that epoch’s day-zero close and multiply by 100. Calculate the running peak within each epoch and apply the drawdown formula above. Match calendar-day offsets, not array positions. Raw third-party price data retain their applicable source terms.
What this chart can and cannot establish
It establishes descriptive differences among these stored historical price paths. It does not prove that the halving caused returns, validate a trading strategy, include execution fees or taxes, or provide a probability that one cycle will repeat. Daily observations within an epoch are dependent; four epochs are not thousands of independent cycle tests.
Network schedule: Bitcoin Core · Historical block dates: Halving block-header evidence · Price method: Stored daily series and closing conventions.
SHARE & CITE
A dated result others can verify
Keep the observation date and method version with your citation. Link to the original page and distinguish completed observations from estimates.
Machine-readable data: Verified JSON dataset · Direct CSV download
Bitcoin cycle comparison questions
What does an index of 100 mean?
It equals that epoch’s halving-day close. An index of 150 represents a 50% rise from that baseline; an index of 80 represents a 20% fall.
Does Bitcoin follow a fixed four-year price cycle?
The halving follows a block schedule, not an exact four-year appointment. Historical price patterns do not establish a fixed future timetable. This chart compares paths without assuming they will repeat.
How many days after a halving does Bitcoin peak?
The observed maximum depends on the epoch and price series. For an ongoing epoch, a final peak is not yet knowable. A retrospectively identified high should not be presented as a prospective date prediction.
Why is the 2024 curve shorter?
The 2024–2028 epoch is still ongoing. Later observations do not exist yet. The default common-window view avoids comparing its partial path with longer completed endpoints.
Is epoch drawdown the same as drawdown from all-time high?
No. Each epoch’s running peak resets at its own day zero. Bitcoin’s all-time-high drawdown uses the entire prior price history and can differ.
Can I compare a particular day after all four halvings?
Yes. Use the day input beneath the chart. The table shows each epoch’s actual date, daily close, index, return, peak return and maximum drawdown through that day. Unavailable days are explicitly left blank.